Cultures of Prediction in Atmospheric and Climate Science: Epistemic and Cultural Shifts in Computer-based Modelling and Simulation

Cover
Half Title
Series Page
Title Page
Copyright Page
Table of Contents
Preface
About the authors
	Ralf Döscher
	Johann Feichter
	Gabriele Gramelsberger
	Hélène Guillemot
	Matthias Heymann
	Nils Randlev Hundebøl
	Matthijs Kouw
	Catharina Landström
	Martin Mahony
	Janet Martin-Nielsen
	Annika E. Nilsson
	Markus Quante
	Christoph Rosol
	Birgit Schneider
	Sverker Sörlin
	Nina Wormbs
Chapter 1 Introduction
	Changing prediction practices
	Cultures of prediction
	The authority of cultures of prediction
	Goal of the book
	References
Chapter 2 Key characteristics of cultures of prediction
	The social role of prediction
	The character and significance of computational practices
	The domestication of uncertainty
	The degree of institutionalization and professionalization of predictive expertise
	The cultural impact of predictive practices and claims
	References
Part 1 Junctions: Science and politics of prediction
	Chapter 3 Calculating the weather: Emerging cultures of prediction in late nineteenth- and early twentieth-century Europe
		Introduction
		The prehistory of modern weather prediction (1800–1880)
		Primers of modern weather forecasting (1880–1930)
		Conclusion: An emerging culture of numerical weather prediction
		Notes
		Acknowledgements
		References
	Chapter 4 Which design for a weather predictor? Speculating on the future of electronic forecasting in post-war America
		Introduction
		Zworykin’s proposal of 1946
		Two reactions: Bush and von Neumann
		A third reaction: Meteorologists
		Conclusion
		Notes
		References
	Chapter 5 A new climate: Hubert H. Lamb and boundary work at the UK Meteorological Office
		Introduction
		A changing climate
		Hubert H. Lamb and the Royal Meteorological Society’s essay prize
		Lamb’s philosophical approach to climate
		Boundary work at the Meteorological Office
		Notes
		Acknowledgments
		References
	Chapter 6 From heuristic to predictive: Making climate models intopolitical instruments
		Introduction
		Heuristic and predictive modeling
		Conclusion: Seeking political relevance
		References
	Chapter 7 How to develop climate models? The “gamble” of improving climate model parameterizations
		Introduction
		Debates on the evolution of climate modeling
		The overhaul of a parameterization at the heart of the model
		Conceptions of climate models and laboratory cultures
		Conclusion: Multi-scale practices and cultures of modeling
		Notes
		Acknowledgement
		References
Part 2 Challenges and debates: Negotiating and using simulation knowledge
	Chapter 8 The (re)emergence of regional climate: Mobile models, regional visions and the government of climate change
		Introduction
		The emergence of regional modeling
		Models on the move: RCMs as traveling code
		Translation, opacity, and political vision: PRECIS and RegCM in India
		Conclusion: Regional modeling and the government of climate change
		Notes
		References
	Chapter 9 Bellwether, exceptionalism, and other tropes: Political coproduction of Arctic climate modeling
		Introduction
		Arctic climate change before models
		The Arctic in early global climate models
		The birth of “climate politics”
		The sea ice component
		Conclusion
		Note
		References
	Chapter 10 From predictive to instructive: Using models for geoengineering
		Introduction
		The history of geoengineering
		Proposed methods
		The crux of experiments
		Geoengineering in a virtual world
		Demands on climate models
		Instructions: Policy advice and economic utilizability
		Conclusion
		References
	Chapter 11 Validating models in the face of uncertainty: Geotechnical engineering and dike vulnerability in the Netherlands
		Introduction
		Piping
		Small, medium, and full-scale physical experiments
		Relevant knowledge and uncertainties in geotechnical research on piping
		From experimentation to data gathering
		Flood Control 2015
		Relevant knowledge and uncertainties in data-intensive methods and the Flood Control 2015 project
		Conclusion: uncertainty as a source of innovation?
		Notes
		References
	Chapter 12 Tracing uncertainty management through four IPCC Assessment Reports and beyond
		Introduction
		FAR and SAR revisited
		TAR and AR4 extending uncertainty management
		Bringing rigor to uncertainty management with frequentist and Bayesian production of PDFs
		Model-based uncertainty analysis beyond the IPCC
		Conclusions and suggestions for future research
		Notes
		References
	Chapter 13 The future face of the Earth: The visual semantics of the future in the climate change imagery of the IPCC
		Visions of the future
		Futuristic image types
		With our backs to the future
		In the triptych of scenario curves
		Burning worlds, or the aesthetics of heat and alarm
		Blue is hope–space for opportunity and life paths
		Data images as associative spaces
		Notes
		References
Index